Description
Puerto Rico has, in recent years, gone through a demographic crisis, with the fertility rate being 26 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49 in 2023 (Puerto Rico Department of Health, 2025) and Puerto Rico’s population having reduced from 3,725,789, as recorded in the 2010 census, to 3,321,845 in the 2020 census (United States Census Bureau, 2010)(United States Census Bureau, 2020). One of the strategies used by the local government has been to incentivize immigration from the mainland United States to the island through the use of tax incentives, beginning with 2012’s Act 66. In this study, we analyzed the effects of natural disasters, local economic conditions, and government incentives on the immigration flows of White, Hispanic and Latino residents from the US to wards in Puerto Rico from 2012 to 2021. We estimated a linear panel regression with fixed effects using Lee’s (1966) Push-Pull framework for immigration to understand the effects from explanatory variables on these flows. Some variables had interaction terms with hurricane Maria, represented by a dichotomous variable. Results show a reduction in overall immigration from White, Hispanic and Latino residents to Puerto Rico in 2018 after hurricane Maria and a slight recovery after. Act 22 incentives and hurricane Maria were found to be correlated with increased Latino and Hispanic resident immigration to the island while property price and rent increases lowered it. White resident immigration was correlated positively with increases in the public administration and information sectors, while construction, manufacturing, and transportation increases were correlated negatively. Overall, pull factors for White immigration were found to be growth in the public administration and information sectors while Hispanic and Latino immigration was pulled by Act 22 incentives and hurricane Maria.
| Affiliation / University / Organization | University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez |
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