Description
Puerto Rico presents a housing paradox: unusually high rent burdens coexist with persistently high residential vacancy. In 2022, renters spent about 40% of income on rent (vs. 30% in the United States), and in 2023 the island-wide average vacancy rate reached 21.3% (vs. 9.6% in the United States; American Community Survey). This study asks how vacancy changed after Hurricane María (2017) and whether in-migration from the U.S. mainland—by White non-Hispanic and Hispanic (any race) residents—helps explain ward-level variation in vacancy.
I assemble a ward (barrio)–year panel of 940 wards from 2010–2023 and, guided by Lee’s (1966) push–pull framework, estimate log-linear spatial autoregressive (SAR) models with ward-clustered standard errors. The dependent variable is the natural log of the vacancy rate. Models include ward and year fixed effects and controls for local income and housing characteristics; spatial dependence is captured via an adjacency-based weights matrix.
Findings show a clear post-2017 shift with substantial spatial heterogeneity. Wards experiencing higher mainland in-migration exhibit significantly lower vacancy rates, and higher local incomes are also associated with lower vacancy. Disaggregated inflow measures indicate that both White non-Hispanic and Hispanic arrivals are linked to reduced vacancy. These patterns are consistent with a “low-price housing pull”: comparatively low housing costs attract mainland migrants, tighten local markets, and lower vacancy despite persistent affordability pressures for incumbent renters.
The study contributes micro-spatial evidence on how migration interacts with housing markets in a shock-prone, high-outmigration context. Results help reconcile Puerto Rico’s apparent “high-vacancy/high-burden” paradox and inform policymakers on where to target new supply, preservation, and tenant protections. For practitioners and policymakers, the evidence supports place-based strategies that balance investment in growing wards with safeguards for affordability.
| Affiliation / University / Organization | UPRM |
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